TECH TALK TUESDAY

BULL CANDLES and MACD

Check back on our discussion of MACD in Tech Talk!!

        So XLE is comprised of about 30 stocks, and the above curve measures the speed with which the number of stocks OVER their 50-day moving average increase or decrease, based on the MACD formula (Above).

        Below is based on the price of crude oil, interpreted in Bull Candles.

 On or about September 3, a Bull Candle appears, (unmarked), just poking its head above the trading range at 6.20, then falling back to 6.10 support level.

What no one got is Chart Above + Chart Below = Saudi Oil Plant attacked by BLACK SWAN!! – Now, was it a FALSE FLAG ATTACK?

With 19 precision hits was it the Houthi Rebels, you think?

Was it the way to get the oil price up where it is needed for producers?

        So, when MACD Signals and Bull Candles result, Big Things can happen!

Here we have a downtrend, looking as if it is punctured by two big Bull candles already penetrating the 50-day moving average to the upside.  Unlike Rogers, this cannot be a Three (3) White Soldiers formation as the 2nd bull candle did not open within the body of the first bull candle.  Later it could become a two-candle continuation pattern, as long as the gap between the first two candles is still open. 

To me this seems quite promising.  Next Gen is a uranium finder, developer and miner, so it has the risk profile unlike that of petroleum companies.  As well this uptrend could flop, but when something is set in motion with this much energy underneath it.  If this continues, the 200-day moving average is within reach let’s say in a week or two, of being breached to the upside, again, a bullish development.  Now maybe in the next post or next week, we can see what the On-Balance-Volume is doing to validate or deny the current moves.

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TECH TALK TUESDAY

Let’s look at Moving Averages

Moving Averages, 20 day, Blue and 50 day, Red, as shown here:

        Basically, as long as both the 20 and the 50 are in Sync, the trend continues at least in the Intermediate term.  If I showed a Long-Term Moving Average such as a 200 day, then there would be what we’d estimate to be a base level of support.  Given the 20 and 50 rising, the 200 would not come into play if the close is far above them.  In the case of CCW.V, the 200 dma is at .40, so will become resistance when its approached.  In the case of GGD.TO, the 200 dma is at .34, and so is support far below where it is now.  We have One stock far above support and one stock approaching resistance (the flip side of support).

In the case of CCW.V, with enough energy under it, it will breach resistance and it will become support once it does.

        So, Moving Averages often show direction, and possibly trend.  Should CCW.V breach its resistance at .40 and stay above it, you could easily say it reversed trend and is now headed up.  There is one stock, GGD.TO that is in an uptrend, and one stock that may turn itself into an uptrend.  I use Moving Averages as an advance indicator, to find stocks I want to watch.  If we add back a supporting measure like On-Balance-Volume, they we have more evidence of how the trend might go. 

        Maybe for the next time we will touch on the 200 Day Moving Average, and maybe later or as well, On-Balance-Volume. 

Meanwhile Good Luck.  DG

FRIDAY FINAL Aug 30, 2019

WHATS UP WITH THE USUAL SUSPECTS WE FOLLOW ?

        After sorting thru all the Parallel Line charts, Relative Strength, and some other criteria, a number of candidates presented themselves.

        That being said, you can see if not feel that we are going thru a correction in the Precious Metals, and yet Silver is feeling frisky, so if your going to buy something,  you will want something with energy underneath it and in the bottom half of its range.  Two of those are presented here for  your view.  OLA.To, and LUG.To, both in Latin America.  OLA is involved in 2 leaching projects in Panama and Mexico, while LUG is working the Fruta del Norte, with vast concessions in Ecuador, and has started mining its first entry there.  Metal pours are anticipated this year.  Here is what they look like.  More charts next week, let say on TUESDAY, with explanations of Moving Averages.

        As you can see, both of these have touched their 20 Day Moving averages.

 Generally the faster the advance, the more intense the correction, all things equal, however they are not equal here, both are touching their Lower Limit in the Parallel Bars charts, so it is equally likely NOT to see an anymore correction in either of these.   The Buy Limits, Sell Limits and Targets are covered in the current Half Price (limited time) subscription as well as the Silver Stocks, probably a half dozen stocks in all.  As always Satisfaction Guaranteed, or your Money Back.

        Have a great weekend, be safe out there, and Good Luck.  Happy Labor Day and see  you on TUESDAY.

DG

TECH TALK TUESDAY

August 27, 2019

      TRENDS are a “fitting” topic.   Remember the parallel bars in gym class?

Easy for some, difficult for others, always one arm slipping before the other and down we go.  Trends are like that.  Something changes up or down and the Trend changes. 

Here goes:

        Cannot deny that this is a TREND, in the defined as an INTACT TREND.

        The fact that two different time frames identify it the same, as an

INTACT TREND, so below is the same chart on a Weekly basis instead of the first one, which is a daily chart.

        So seriously folks, is there really a dime worth (not silver) of difference between these two-time frames?  In my world, I think not!!

        The only thing you could discriminate upon examination of these charts, is where you decided to pull the trigger, like on this one:

Depending your risk appetite, and itchy trigger finger, sometimes you get the jump on the trend, say with PGM, buying it as it broke out of the trading range, which topped out at C$0.60.  More burnt fingers, but bigger profits, is the rule of balancing risks against rewards

 So now you have another tool, “Parallels”

TECH TALK TUESDAY

August 27, 2019

        To review, here are the tools we had from before today:

        TOOL #1 in your Profit Kit is B.U.T.,BUY UP TO”.

          TOOL #2 in your P-Kit A.C.M.E. “AFTER MARKET CLOSE EXIT”.

        TOOL # 3, should be P.E.T.: “Probable Estimated Target” – now you can decide if you want to take a profit, or stay in, odds of getting stopped out increase as you increase your A.C.M.E., with price moveups.

          TOOL #4 will be M.A.C.D., “Moving Average Convergence / Divergence.” –  You measure the acceleration in your movements.

        TOOL # 5, PARALLELS – your way of watching the lesser trends inside the main trend and their direction.  You can do it on Stock Charts on in DGS Letter, or with a set of parallel rulers on a basic price chart.

So here we have TOOL # 4 and #5

MACD & PARALLELLS.  Tools 1-3 relate conditioning your buying and selling to use advantageous means, and one more on the way later as well.

        MACD and PARALLELLS give you the guidance, hints and clues, as to when to act and what to do.            

So, who is on First, or Are we there yet?

CRUNCH TIME 

Aug 23, 2019

So, who is on First, or Are we there yet?

        Either addresses the current CUT 2 CHASE question.

        Blind faith can be good or bad, but tempered with some evidence, might be a good thing.    Let’s look at several categories of evidence concerning the position and trend of Gold and Gold Stocks.

  1. PRICE & Long-Term Trending.

Above the GDX is shown in a 2+ year chart.

 Underneath it starting in June is its 30 week Moving Average.

   It is bracketed in Blue by an upper and lower limit which define the upper and lower limits of this advance, plus a centerline as a tripwire to determine direction of price

                        Thus, this criterion is positive

   Next are OSCILLATORs

  • Directional Oscillators are next, to help us determine direction.

   The solid line, Aroon Oscillator, is helpful in determining trend direction, and in this case, climbing down, is indicating a correction down to support is going on now.

                3.  Confirmation Measures help us gauge whether two values are in sync.  Like the DJ Industrial and the DJ Trans stay in sync, helps us accept their moves.  Same for Gold, the Metal and Gold Miners, the Stocks.

        In this case, the Mutual Fund OUNZ which can deliver REAL GOLD, and the more conservative Gold Miner Index XAU, are shown together one can see that they are in sync with each other.  What that does NOT mean, is that they cannot go down, as they CAN also go down together.  It shows this move is valid.

        What this analysis leaves me with is the possibility of a sharp drop to fill the gap created on Jun 20, with an Intra-day spike down to the 24.03 level to fill that gap and then a reversal day to the upside, either that day or the next.

        That leaves me with HOLDING the stocks I bought in May and June and taking profits in issued without solid relative strength.  In any case, the drop will be temporary.    Using other measurements, I suspect the gap-filling moves will result in a bounce of the base, and a reversal to the upside between September 1 and October 1.  Until then I continue to Recommend individual stocks for buying on the dips.

                As an add-back to my Recco’s, I remove the AVOID from CCO.To and add it back to Reccos, (CCJ also) as well as adding Dennison Mines, DML.To, (DNN), as it seems some Uranium issues have come back to life.

WHEN the GDX or HUI JUMPS the 31-32 gap, (The Straits of Hell) there will be an amazing show of strength given the Government corruption of the Monetary System.   Whether it JUMPS the GAP or merely wades thru it are not as important as WHEN  it breaks above the GDX 32 / HUI 300, which has not been seen since July 2013. 

        ONCE A month, our DGS Letter, gives simple and plainly worded summations of the current Analysis with NO Technical Terms, just   BUYSELL – or – HOLD.  Unique STOPS and TARGETS with each Recco, and Update as necessary.

Recommendations, Buy or Sell as they happen for Subscribers, out today if you wish to catch yourself up on our RECCO’s

TECH TALK TUESDAY, AUG 20, 2019

MACD=Moving Average Convergence / Divergence.

        TOOL #1 in your Profit Kit is B.U.T., “BUY UP TO”.

                TOOL #2 in your P-Kit  A.C.M.E.   “AFTER MARKET CLOSE EXIT”.

        TOOL #3 will be M.A.C.D., “Moving Average Convergence / Divergence.”

                The BLUE BARS are the Histogram that represent the numerical value of the MACD. That same value is the black line.  Same for the BLUE BARS.  The interaction between the BLACK and RED (9 day Moving Average of the BLACK line), make MACD function like an Acceleration Meter.   The steepness of its upcurve or down curve shows you how intense the G-Force is and whether its Increasing or Decreasing.

                The MACD is figured on the difference between the 12-day Exponential Moving Average and the 26-day Exponential Moving Average.

Exponential Averages move faster than Simple moving average, so things can change in a hurry.

                Watching the changes in acceleration is often a first hint before price starts moving, for or against you.

                With three (3) specific values in MACD, you can watch them for interaction to give you clues and hints about what may come next.  Now that you know what it is, watch it for a while, and we will cover how to use it effectively as part of your Profit-Kit. 

Friday Feature

       Since I deal in Technical Analysis, trying to divine things about stock, the subject of where a stock is going is often raised.  It is a question to which I always answer: “I don’t know.”, and which I follow on with: “There are a number of ways that you can form a Scientific Wild Guestimate, which often works out, and is accepted among most stock market technicians.”  Let me illustrate one here:

        This BALANCE scheme is based on the equality of a SINE wave above and below Zero, at times called ZERO BALANCE.

        Does it work?  Yes, and No, so its a good method for trying to approximate how far some stock might run.   A weak stock will punk out and a strong stock will overrun it, which is why I use B.U.T. And A.C.M.E., to try and gauge when to get out.  Want to apply it to a stock or do more? Drop me a note, make it happen!

 Information contained herein is for educational and informational purposes only.  Investors are       responsible to execute their own due diligence investigations to protect their capital.  Publisher or associates may have positions in these stocks as well.                                          Copyright Denaliguide, DGS Publications, 2018-2019

TECH TALK TUESDAY

Today reminds you of the Road Runner and Wile-e Coyote as he gets the 500 lb A.C.M.E weight dropped on him from above by the Road Runner.

        So why and how does A.C.M.E. Work ?

AFTER MARKET CLOSE EXIT

 is designed to keep stocks in  your hands that work good.  It is designed to keep the market makers from stealing your stock via INTRA-Day market fluctuations.

Once you know that market makers can take any stock anywhere they want during the session and bring it back to where they want it for the close, you see how they play their mischief.

        So you like PVG under $11 and get a good trade, into it at 10.80, and wait a day or two before setting a stop.  Then it surges to 11.50, and you set a stop at 10.80 just for safety sake.  Feeling good, you don’t panic when it closes below 11.00, but watch as the market makers take it down the next day, under 10.80, down to 10.57, showing, that your lost now.   Of course to further demoralize you, they run it back to close at 11.40, within 16 cents of its previous hi.

        I don’t blame you for your bewilderment and perhaps anger !  I’ve seen this too many times to be surprised.  Your 10.80 stop was in the right place but at the WRONG time.  Specifying AFTER CLOSE and keeping it MENTAL, not entered, is the key.  So designating your EXIT as AFTER CLOSE, keeps the sharks from biting your legs off, cutting you off at the knees, and stealing your stock, which by now has run up to almost 13.00 and you with NO stock, NO PVG !!

        With A.C.M.E., in place, you must watch your stock, to execute A.C.M.E., the next day, if necessary.  This is a necessary tactic, to stop theft by market makers.  You end up with the good buys and appreciation from the good buy.   Information contained herein is for educational and informational purposes only.  Investors are responsible to execute their own due diligence investigations to protect their capital.  Publisher or associates may have positions in these stocks as well.                                                

pic curtesy of Pintrest

CopyRight Denaliguide, DGS Publications, 2018-2019

Crunch Time

CRUNCH TIME 

Aug 7, 2019

        This is the BEST Trade set-up I have ever seen (since 1970).  That’s a long time.   EXTREMELY COMPELLING because this could turn into the most BULLISH formation I have EVER SEEN.. Having been a Gold Bug for years, I’ve seen a few Bullish formations but nothing like this. 

        Here is the WHY of doing this, for me:  Certainly anger and revenge at being bamboozled, but I KNOW the more who are aboard, the better chance of full realization of the full potential of the Precious Metals Long Term Targets (Targets shown in DGS Letters).

WHEN  the GDX or HUI JUMPS the 31-32 gap, there will be an amazing show of strength given the  Government corruption of the Monetary System.   Whether it JUMPS the GAP or merely wades thru it are not as important as WHEN  it breaks above the GDX 32 / HUI 300, which has not been seen since July 2013.    

Scroll up on the side bar

        for   HALF PRICE US $ 24.95 monthly, rather than the usual $49.75 US !

        ONCE A month, The DGS Letter, simple and  plainly worded summation of the current Technical Analysis with NO Technical Terms, just   BUYSELL – or – HOLD.  Unique STOPS and TARGETS with each Recco, and Update as necessary.

Recommendations, Buy or Sell as they happen.

CANNABIS WEDNESDAY

FLAT LINE AFTER A HEART ATTACK, but what awaits come the Holidays?GDX+CANNABIS+AutoResist

 

so the GREEN is a Cannabis Index, which shows once investors got over their reluctance, they embraced the reality that Cannabis was and still is a coming trend.

For this reason, I’d take a Scientific Wild Assinine Guess (S.W.A.G) that a minimum of 2-4 times the CANNIBIS related stocks, in the short run, are going to have speculative success, as compared to the Metal Miners and Developers.  BUT be prepared for that to switch places.   I am still long a lot of Cannibis related stocks, and also Miner related stocks.

Canadian Legalization looms July 1, and the cyclical rallies in the Precious Metals and Miners sectors, coming “about” six (6) months apart, generally Jan and Jul.   Now, simply, the basic meme is “BUY The RUMOR”, and “SELL The NEWS” ( the obvious announcement concerning the Rumor).   So with the Cannabis industry expanding like a bucket of water spilled on a tile floor, there is a time to beware of The DRAIN, where some of the companies disappear.  Not all bad though, many will be absorbed by the bigger plays, that were investments for the “early adaptors”, and now provide buyouts for the smaller players.

Lets go back to the really horrible or really great or just indifferent chart of the GDX.

GDX has been locked in a range of a high of 25.5 and a low of 20.67 for eighteen (18+) plus months.  Highly unusual ?  Yes I will go with that unusual label.  For now.

Now for those who witnessed the 2011-2012 debacle where the US Govt got spooked because they lost their AAA rating, moved down to AA, and the Govt. then took steps advocated by Paul Volker, former Fed Chair, who said the mistake of the 80s, was not to control the price of Gold.  So the Exchange Stabilization Fund, visible hand, probably using J.P.Morgan bank as their agent, began to degrade the price of gold on the paper markets.  So in April, the degrading attempts got more and more intense, and in the week ending April 12th, 2013, a quantity of paper gold contracts approximately equivalent to TWO years of a major miner, were dumped more or less at one time, resulting in a horrendous break in the paper contract gold price.  It was good for the ESF in the short run, but maybe not in the long run.  Such hasty action resulted in a GAP which still exists today,  creating a potential Island Bottom, from April 12 to now, betwn GDX 31.44 and GDX 32.54, not an inconsequential or fractional gap.   While 25.50, the current top end of the GDX trading range for the last eighteen months, is far from 31.44 GDX, that is where the 2017 rally ran up to, but did not cross.   This gap, to me, along with others in there, I know as the “STRAITS of HELL”.  If arriving there, the GDX jumps the gap, it will have completed an Island Bottom of FIVE (5) years.  Try to comprehend what that would say.  For example, a structural analysis (blueprint) style, projects an upside potential to 33 GDX as the target of the next move.  Longer term, it is double that.  Possible ?  Sure.  Probable?  I don’t know, but with a gap, an eighteen (18) month flat line, a rally from 12 GDX to 31 GDX in eight (8) months, it is difficult to come up with any probability except the price of Gold is manipulated with paper contracts until is its no longer done.  Think of the turkeys at Thanksgiving.  Everything is OK until that morning.  So this will keep up until it can’t.  Then I think the probability of the GDX jumping the “STRAITS of HELL” like a crown fire in the tall pines, is very real, at which time, GDX will be “on-fire”, or en fuego as Krazy Cramer likes to say.  So much for that, now you know.

Let talk about CANNABIS Stocks now:exampleCANN

demoNine.v

exampleQCC

Pretty much illustrates the point that not all   Cannabis stocks go straight up,  but the trend is good for now.  Subscribe and get our latest picks.