I think REALITY rules. I have seen a lot of flights of fancy, and a lot of fancy math, and yet The Opposition Forces generally manage to mount spoiling attacks when the PM numbers look attractive. Now quite like the legendary pirates of the markets, the market makers will take their stocks down to whatever level they are using to hunt stops to run, and then bring them back to close pretty much where they opened, The Opposition Forces are able to do about the same thing. So for either the GOLD MINERS or the GOLD METALS, it seems that the Myth or Math must bow to the REALITY of watching where reality takes the MINERS and METALS to their nadair LOWS, and either note it for future use or enter there. Certainly I have felt like I have been double teamed by a pair of NFL Tackles by using logic, rather than Reality Observation. For your info, if you like seeing likely reversal spots/lever points, watch ADX, and VORTEX. So, sadly for me, I do wish I’d have observed them better, as the market fell away from my acquisition points.. Depending on my expertise wth graphics here, I’ll show them. To assure you get the info, I will also link them. Good Luck.
Now according to Marc Chaiken who I see as an honest technician draws his Stop Loss point for Long Term Trades at 30%. So now, looking at the cyclic fluctuation, you can see that a 30% Stop Loss, reduced again by 30% gives you a value of 49 out of 100. Not coincidently in my book, we see NEM declining by half (49%) before it reverses. SIL demonstrates the same move, as does HBM. Is it all conincidence, my feelings ar no, so as we look at an entry price. Now admittedly this has been a contrived market, but you can see, in this manipulated market, THEY coulld drive it that far, and so YOU could buy it at those levels
Here is NEM https://schrts.co/UDUcIjBi
Here is SLV https://schrts.co/VQRRvHeJ
Here is HBM https://schrts.co/qxiDdgpy
None of this stuff is foolproof, more in the area of hints and clues for you to use, maybe.