For most of us the reason for price
movements, can be pretty masked most of the time. This latest weakness in Gold, has a clear
reference to China, as shown in this LINK , based on China’s vacation week, its National Days
which ended today. The charts in the
linked article give graphic representation of this phenomena going back to 2013. I think the data exist further back but this
is quite graphic and worth a look in my opinion.
Got to be one
of the prettiest Bull Candles I’ve seen, rebounding as if they had read my
forecast for the end of Gold weakness.
CCI is an element I use here, helping Bird-dog or Point turning
the same vehicle, lets look at the 200 Day Moving Average, and refer to
Here the 200
Day Moving Average is the mean, constructed for the last 10 trading months, so
its stable. Notably, at the peak of this
leg, in early September GDX was 30% above the 200 Day Moving Average, almost
completely over-extended until the decline in October. Today the GDX is 10%
above its 200 Day Moving Average, in what I think is a completely sustainable
position. For most uses, the 200 Day
Moving Average provides a stable mean to compare daily prices with as to
determine trend. This is a Bull Trend
On-Balance-Volume (gray line behind price) provides a check on the validity of a price move, going in directional correlation to the price. Deviations and divergences from that correlation make me skeptical of the integrity of the price movement. MACD is in a low position, below zero, perhaps bottoming. Turning up in a bull move would signal good strength, the kind you want under a Good Buy.
previous Recco’s and recaps, all are in good standing, not surprising, the
strongest and weakest have swapped positions as this Precious Metals market get
itself together to resume its up trend.
FED LENDS $100 BILLION TO BANKS THIS WEEK TO COVER LOSSES.
BRENT CRUDE OIL SPIKES TO $70 A BBL, SETTLES AT $60
SAUDI ARABIA SAYS ALL DAMAGE TO OIL PLANT REPAIRED
Which two (2) events, in your mind, had
the greatest effect on price action in the markets this week?
To my mind, not anything on this list
had any more than a 24-hiccup effect on any of the markets out there.
Nothing. These two charts show
Now if all this is true, why is the
Inflation Index lying to us in the open?
inflation index, knows The truth as to what happens on its turf.
Except for items # 2 and #3, there is
little we can do to verify any of this.
Even the best due
diligence investigation we can do, cannot produce any real evidence of any
of this, except by what we are told by “Official Sources”.
Thus, like John Snow of “Game of
Thrones” fame, we “know nothing.”
I don’t need
to boggle you with packs of charts.
Evident, is that someone knew something.
We know it was known to “them” in the month of August. Who “they” were cannot be verified,
but chances are its the “usual suspects”?
Rather than the laundry list of our most
recent bad actors, lets look at WHAT happened that we can verify, and “cui
bono?”, Latin for “who benefits?”
In the chart of XVG, we
see prices languish during August, only to sprint in September to a level yet
below their heights in July. XVG
is the “average share” of stock in Value Line’s Index, so the changes would
appear in most every stock out there.
OK, that is a fun fact, so what?
It means to me, that “they” or someone, knew by end of August that a
rally was imminent. Now with oil prices
declining to $25 a bbl, by the end of next year, it would mean that many oil
producers and Saudi Arabia, in reality, would be bankrupt. Now if a huge player, a “whale” as they are
named, bet that, it could make or lose a lot of money. The “whale” bet lost, as evidenced by the FED
having to pump $100 Billion into the market for overnight bank lending. Banks would not or could not lend that $100
Billion to keep the “whale” afloat, so the Fed had to step in or watch the
whole lending system lock up as it did in 2008.
Well the current situation, due to all the money pumping that occurred
from 2008 to now, means that we are now exponentially far above the place from
where the economy and markets fell in 2008 – 2011, and with far less
support. Given a scientific wild guess
on the subject, I would we are one hundred (100) or more times pumped up than
where we were in 2008. A simple reading
of Zombie companies (those who would be insolvent without constant borrowing),
I think would
support that supposition. So what? Well what happens when the lending
stops? Something breaks in the financial
system with a loud snap as it did this week, and the Fed has to step up and
throw bundles of funny money at it, to try to stem the bleeding in the wound. Why is that a problem? Because, friends, someone is not a believer
or beleaguered to the extent they must act in a contrary fashion to protect
themselves and cause the financial system to start bleeding from a new
wound. This is a self-replicating cycle,
and each wound becomes larger than the previous, and creates consequences many
times that of the wound. You see where
this ends? I do! The safest thing to do is to buy things of known
value, mostly likely with physical value and assets, that cannot be
expropriated by others, man, nor beast, nor government. I leave the selection to you, and invite you
to subscribe to the DGS Letter to learn more. Good Luck!!
After sorting thru all the Parallel Line
charts, Relative Strength, and some other criteria, a number of candidates
That being said, you can see if not feel that we are going thru a correction in the Precious Metals, and yet Silver is feeling frisky, so if your going to buy something, you will want something with energy underneath it and in the bottom half of its range. Two of those are presented here for your view. OLA.To, and LUG.To, both in Latin America. OLA is involved in 2 leaching projects in Panama and Mexico, while LUG is working the Fruta del Norte, with vast concessions in Ecuador, and has started mining its first entry there. Metal pours are anticipated this year. Here is what they look like. More charts next week, let say on TUESDAY, with explanations of Moving Averages.
As you can see, both of these have
touched their 20 Day Moving averages.
Generally the faster the advance, the more
intense the correction, all things equal, however they are not equal here, both
are touching their Lower Limit in the Parallel Bars charts, so it is equally
likely NOT to see an anymore correction in either of these. The Buy Limits, Sell Limits and Targets are
covered in the current Half Price (limited time) subscription as well as the
Silver Stocks, probably a half dozen stocks in all. As always Satisfaction Guaranteed, or your
Have a great weekend, be safe out there,
and Good Luck. Happy Labor Day and
see you on TUESDAY.
TRENDS are a “fitting” topic.
Remember the parallel bars in gym class?
Easy for some, difficult for others, always one arm
slipping before the other and down we go.
Trends are like that. Something
changes up or down and the Trend changes.
Cannot deny that this is a TREND, in the
defined as an INTACT TREND.
The fact that two different time frames
identify it the same, as an
so below is the same chart on a Weekly basis instead of the first one, which is
a daily chart.
So seriously folks, is there really a dime
worth (not silver) of difference between these two-time frames? In my world, I think not!!
thing you could discriminate upon examination of these charts, is where you
decided to pull the trigger, like on this one:
risk appetite, and itchy trigger finger, sometimes you get the jump on the
trend, say with PGM, buying it as it broke out of the trading range, which
topped out at C$0.60. More burnt
fingers, but bigger profits, is the rule of balancing risks against rewards
So now you have another tool, “Parallels”
TECH TALK TUESDAY
August 27, 2019
To review, here are the tools we had from
TOOL #1 in your Profit Kit is B.U.T.,“BUY UP TO”.
#2 in your P-Kit A.C.M.E.
“AFTER MARKET CLOSE EXIT”.
TOOL # 3, should
be P.E.T.: “Probable Estimated Target” – now you can decide if
you want to take a profit, or stay in, odds of getting stopped out increase as
you increase your A.C.M.E., with price moveups.
#4 will be M.A.C.D.,
“Moving Average Convergence / Divergence.” – You measure the acceleration in your
TOOL # 5, PARALLELS – your way of
watching the lesser trends inside the main trend and their direction. You can do it on Stock Charts on in DGS
Letter, or with a set of parallel rulers on a basic price chart.
here we have TOOL # 4 and #5
MACD & PARALLELLS. Tools 1-3 relate conditioning your buying and
selling to use advantageous means, and one more on the way later as well.
MACD and PARALLELLS give you the
guidance, hints and clues, as to when to act and what to do.
Either addresses the current CUT 2
Blind faith can be good or bad, but tempered with some
evidence, might be a good thing. Let’s
look at several categories of evidence concerning the position and trend of
Gold and Gold Stocks.
PRICE & Long-Term Trending.
Above the GDX is
shown in a 2+ year chart.
Underneath it starting in June is its 30 week
It is bracketed in Blue by an upper and
lower limit which define the upper and lower limits of this advance, plus a
centerline as a tripwire to determine direction of price
Thus, this criterion is
Next are OSCILLATORs
Directional Oscillators are next, to help us determine
The solid line, Aroon Oscillator, is helpful
in determining trend direction, and in this case, climbing down, is indicating
a correction down to support is going on now.
3. Confirmation Measures help us gauge
whether two values are in sync. Like the
DJ Industrial and the DJ Trans stay in sync, helps us accept their moves. Same for Gold, the Metal and Gold Miners, the
this case, the Mutual Fund OUNZ which can deliver REAL GOLD, and the more
conservative Gold Miner Index XAU, are shown together one can see that they are
in sync with each other. What that does
NOT mean, is that they cannot go down, as they CAN also go down together. It shows this move is valid.
What this analysis leaves me with is the
possibility of a sharp drop to fill the gap created on Jun 20, with an
Intra-day spike down to the 24.03 level to fill that gap and then a reversal
day to the upside, either that day or the next.
leaves me with HOLDING the stocks I bought in May and June and taking profits
in issued without solid relative strength.
In any case, the drop will be temporary. Using other measurements, I suspect the
gap-filling moves will result in a bounce of the base, and a reversal to the
upside between September 1 and October 1. Until then I continue to Recommend individual
stocks for buying on the dips.
an add-back to my Recco’s, I remove the AVOID from CCO.To and add it
back to Reccos, (CCJ also) as well as adding Dennison Mines, DML.To,
(DNN), as it seems some Uranium issues have come back to life.
WHEN the GDX or HUI JUMPS the 31-32 gap,
(The Straits of Hell) there will be an amazing show of strength
given the Government corruption of the Monetary System. Whether it JUMPS the GAP or merely wades
thru it are not as important as WHEN it
breaks above the GDX 32 / HUI 300, which has not been seen since July 2013.
ONCE A month, our DGS Letter,
gives simple and plainly worded summations of the current Analysis with NO
Technical Terms, just BUY – SELL – or – HOLD. Unique STOPS and TARGETS with each Recco, and
Update as necessary.
Buy or Sell as they happen for Subscribers, out today if you wish to catch
yourself up on our RECCO’s
Since I deal in Technical Analysis, trying to divine things about stock, the subject of where a stock is going is often raised. It is a question to which I always answer: “I don’t know.”, and which I follow on with: “There are a number of ways that you can form a Scientific Wild Guestimate, which often works out, and is accepted among most stock market technicians.” Let me illustrate one here:
This BALANCE scheme is based on the
equality of a SINE wave above and below Zero, at times called ZERO BALANCE.
Does it work? Yes, and No, so its a good method for trying to approximate how far some stock might run. A weak stock will punk out and a strong stock will overrun it, which is why I use B.U.T. And A.C.M.E., to try and gauge when to get out. Want to apply it to a stock or do more? Drop me a note, make it happen!
contained herein is for educational and informational purposes only. Investors are responsible to execute their own due
diligence investigations to protect their capital. Publisher or associates may have positions in
these stocks as well. Copyright Denaliguide, DGS Publications, 2018-2019
Today reminds you of the Road Runner and Wile-e Coyote as he gets the 500 lb A.C.M.E weight dropped on him from above by the Road Runner.
So why and how does A.C.M.E. Work ?
AFTER MARKET CLOSE EXIT
is designed to keep stocks in your hands that work good. It is designed to keep the market makers from stealing your stock via INTRA-Day market fluctuations.
Once you know that market makers can take any stock anywhere they want during the session and bring it back to where they want it for the close, you see how they play their mischief.
So you like PVG under $11 and get a good trade, into it at 10.80, and wait a day or two before setting a stop. Then it surges to 11.50, and you set a stop at 10.80 just for safety sake. Feeling good, you don’t panic when it closes below 11.00, but watch as the market makers take it down the next day, under 10.80, down to 10.57, showing, that your lost now. Of course to further demoralize you, they run it back to close at 11.40, within 16 cents of its previous hi.
I don’t blame you for your bewilderment and perhaps anger ! I’ve seen this too many times to be surprised. Your 10.80 stop was in the right place but at the WRONG time. Specifying AFTER CLOSE and keeping it MENTAL, not entered, is the key. So designating your EXIT as AFTER CLOSE, keeps the sharks from biting your legs off, cutting you off at the knees, and stealing your stock, which by now has run up to almost 13.00 and you with NO stock, NO PVG !!
With A.C.M.E., in place, you must watch your stock, to execute A.C.M.E., the next day, if necessary. This is a necessary tactic, to stop theft by market makers. You end up with the good buys and appreciation from the good buy. Information contained herein is for educational and informational purposes only. Investors are responsible to execute their own due diligence investigations to protect their capital. Publisher or associates may have positions in these stocks as well.
This is the BEST Trade set-up I have ever seen (since 1970). That’s a long time. EXTREMELY COMPELLING because this could turn into the most BULLISH formation I have EVER SEEN.. Having been a Gold Bug for years, I’ve seen a few Bullish formations but nothing like this.
Here is the WHY of doing this, for
me: Certainly anger and revenge
at being bamboozled, but I KNOW the more who are aboard, the better
chance of full realization of the full potential of the Precious Metals Long
Term Targets (Targets shown in DGS Letters).
the GDX or HUI JUMPS the 31-32 gap, there will be an amazing show
of strength given the Government
corruption of the Monetary System.
Whether it JUMPS the GAP or merely wades thru it are not as important as
WHEN it breaks above the GDX 32 / HUI
300, which has not been seen since July 2013.
Scroll upon the side bar
HALF PRICE US $ 24.95 monthly, rather than the usual $49.75 US !
ONCE A month, The DGS Letter,
simple and plainly worded summation of
the current Technical Analysis with NO Technical Terms, just BUY
– SELL – or – HOLD. Unique
STOPS and TARGETS with each Recco, and Update as necessary.
FLAT LINE AFTER A HEART ATTACK, but what awaits come the Holidays?
so the GREEN is a Cannabis Index, which shows once investors got over their reluctance, they embraced the reality that Cannabis was and still is a coming trend.
For this reason, I’d take a Scientific Wild Assinine Guess (S.W.A.G) that a minimum of 2-4 times the CANNIBIS related stocks, in the short run, are going to have speculative success, as compared to the Metal Miners and Developers. BUT be prepared for that to switch places. I am still long a lot of Cannibis related stocks, and also Miner related stocks.
Canadian Legalization looms July 1, and the cyclical rallies in the Precious Metals and Miners sectors, coming “about” six (6) months apart, generally Jan and Jul. Now, simply, the basic meme is “BUY The RUMOR”, and “SELL The NEWS” ( the obvious announcement concerning the Rumor). So with the Cannabis industry expanding like a bucket of water spilled on a tile floor, there is a time to beware of The DRAIN, where some of the companies disappear. Not all bad though, many will be absorbed by the bigger plays, that were investments for the “early adaptors”, and now provide buyouts for the smaller players.
Lets go back to the really horrible or really great or just indifferent chart of the GDX.
GDX has been locked in a range of a high of 25.5 and a low of 20.67 for eighteen (18+) plus months. Highly unusual ? Yes I will go with that unusual label. For now.
Now for those who witnessed the 2011-2012 debacle where the US Govt got spooked because they lost their AAA rating, moved down to AA, and the Govt. then took steps advocated by Paul Volker, former Fed Chair, who said the mistake of the 80s, was not to control the price of Gold. So the Exchange Stabilization Fund, visible hand, probably using J.P.Morgan bank as their agent, began to degrade the price of gold on the paper markets. So in April, the degrading attempts got more and more intense, and in the week ending April 12th, 2013, a quantity of paper gold contracts approximately equivalent to TWO years of a major miner, were dumped more or less at one time, resulting in a horrendous break in the paper contract gold price. It was good for the ESF in the short run, but maybe not in the long run. Such hasty action resulted in a GAP which still exists today, creating a potential Island Bottom, from April 12 to now, betwn GDX 31.44 and GDX 32.54, not an inconsequential or fractional gap. While 25.50, the current top end of the GDX trading range for the last eighteen months, is far from 31.44 GDX, that is where the 2017 rally ran up to, but did not cross. This gap, to me, along with others in there, I know as the “STRAITS of HELL”. If arriving there, the GDX jumps the gap, it will have completed an Island Bottom of FIVE (5) years. Try to comprehend what that would say. For example, a structural analysis (blueprint) style, projects an upside potential to 33 GDX as the target of the next move. Longer term, it is double that. Possible ? Sure. Probable? I don’t know, but with a gap, an eighteen (18) month flat line, a rally from 12 GDX to 31 GDX in eight (8) months, it is difficult to come up with any probability except the price of Gold is manipulated with paper contracts until is its no longer done. Think of the turkeys at Thanksgiving. Everything is OK untilthat morning. So this will keep up until it can’t. Then I think the probability of the GDX jumping the “STRAITS of HELL” like a crown fire in the tall pines, is very real, at which time, GDX will be “on-fire”, or en fuego as Krazy Cramer likes to say. So much for that, now you know.
Let talk about CANNABIS Stocks now:
Pretty much illustrates the point that not all Cannabis stocks go straight up, but the trend is good for now. Subscribe and get our latest picks.
Well its after market close on Wed, and I ended up with 9 Cannabis related stocks, 8 Canadian and one US OTC. Of those 3 are recommendations(Canadians), with potential for you to act upon them now if that is your style. Far and away XYZ.Zo, is leading the Cannaibs Reco’s, by a large margin. In the Mining Sector,
ABC.Go (geologically searching for the “7 Talents of Gold) leads FAT.Cat with its Lithum deposit in Slow River, Manitoba) by a 4 to 1 performance to date margin.
In ABC’s case you are on the geologic trail of Historic Gold Cities in Latin American’d Cordillas , while with MNO.Lz Mining you are beginning to exploit a serious Energy deposit in a stable and friendly jurisdiction.. Given your appetite for risk, there is a choice. Rewards in either case could be substantial, as much as a triple in the case of XYZ.Zo and close to a potential double, in the case of ABC.Go both in the span of say, one year. True names were changed to protect the innocent, but for the full report, drop
drop me an email.
Good Luck, DG
Information contained herein is for educational and informational purposes only. Investors are responsible to execute their own due diligence investigations to protect their capital. Publisher or associates may have positions in these stocks as well. CopyRight Denaliguide, DGS Publications, 2017-2018